天津市土地利用碳排放的多情景模拟

Multiscenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions of Land Use in Tianjin City

摘要:

土地利用产生的碳排放是区域碳排放的重要来源，开展天津市土地利用碳排放动态变化及模拟研究可以为区域土地绿色、可持续发展提供参考借鉴。基于天津市20002020年5期的土地利用数据，本文运用ArcMap 10.8软件和土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用碳排放测算等模型分析了天津市土地利用碳排放的动态变化特点。在设定自然发展、经济发展、生态保护3种土地利用情景的基础上，运用PLUS模型、灰色预测模型等对2030年天津市土地利用及其碳排放进行模拟预测。结果表明：①20002020年，天津市建设用地面积大幅增长，耕地等土地类型的面积减少并向建设用地等类型转换。②20002015年土地利用碳排放总量持续上升，2015年后逐渐下降。20年间整体呈现出碳汇用地向碳源用地转化的趋势。③3种土地利用情景下，总体土地利用格局未出现大幅改变，在碳排放量方面，生态发展情景＜自然发展情景＜经济保护情景。未来，建设用地依旧是影响整体碳排放量变化的主导因素。根据以上3个结果提出以下建议：①优化土地利用结构，严格控制新增建设用地。②在城镇化发展的同时推动技术进步。③生态保护情景更贴合“双碳”目标，天津市政策导向需要优化碳汇地类，抑制耕地、建设用地无序扩张。

Abstract:

Carbon emissions resulting from land utilization constitute a significant source of regional carbon emissions. Conducting dynamic change analysis and simulation research on land use carbon emissions in Tianjin city can provide valuable references for promoting green and sustainable development of regional land resources. Based on land use data of Tianjin city from 2000 to 2020, by using ArcMap10.8 software and land use dynamics models, land use transfer matrices, and land use carbon emission calculation models to analyze the dynamic change characteristics of land use carbon emissions in Tianjin. On the basis of setting three land use scenarios of natural development, economic development, and ecological protection, by using PLUS model and grey prediction model,land use and carbon emissions in Tianjin city in 2030 has been simulated and predicted. It is showed that: ①From 2000 to 2020, the area of construction land in Tianjin city has increased significantly, while farmland has decreased and has been converted to construction land. ② From 2000 to 2015, total land use carbon emissions have continued to rise, while gradually decreased after 2015. There has been a trend of converting carbon sink land to carbon source land Over 20 years. ③Under three land use scenarios, the overall land use pattern exhibits no substantial alterations. In terms of carbon emissions, ecological development scenario registers the lowest levels, followed by natural development scenario, with economic protection scenario yielding the highest emissions. In the future, construction land will continue to be the predominant factor driving changes in overall carbon emissions. The following suggestions have been proposed::①land use structure should be optimized and strictly controlled the addition of new construction land. ②Technological progress should be promoted while promoting urbanization development. ③The ecological protection scenario is closer to "dual carbon" goal. The policy orientation of Tianjin city needs to optimize carbon sink land types and inhibit the disorderly expansion of farmland and construction land.