山东日照东港区土地利用演变与未来模拟分析

Analysis on Land Use Evolution and Future Simulation in Donggang District in Rizhao City in Shandong Province

摘要:

在快速城市化进程中，土地利用类型不断变化，城市扩张、农业用地减少、生态用地退化等现象普遍存在。科学解析土地利用演变规律，预测未来用地格局，对于优化国土空间布局、协调人地关系、促进生态环境保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以山东省日照市东港区为研究区，利用2014—2022年多时相土地利用数据，分析该区域土地利用格局的演变特征，并采用PLUS模型模拟2030年土地利用格局，探讨其未来发展趋势。研究结果表明：2014—2022年，东港区建设用地持续扩张，不透水地面面积由275.43 km2 增加至318.44 km2，预计2030年将进一步增长至356.42 km2，主要来源于耕地的转化；生态用地总体趋于稳定，森林面积由62.88 km2 增长至71.69 km2，预计2030年将达到80.24 km2，水体面积由32.95 km2 增至34.46 km2，预计2030年进一步增加至36.47 km2；土地利用变化受多种因素驱动，其中人口密度、夜间灯光指数城市建设用地扩张的主要影响因素，而地形、降水量和植被覆盖度仍是生态用地分布的关键驱动因子。本研究为东港区土地利用规划提供了科学依据，也为其他地区的可持续发展提供借鉴。

Abstract:

In the process of rapid urbanization, land use types are constantly changing. Urban expansion, reduction of agricultural land and degradation of ecological land are widespread. Scientifically analyzing the evolution patterns of land use and predicting future land use patterns are of great significance for optimizing the layout of national land space, coordinating the relationship between humans and land, and promoting ecological environmental protection and sustainable development. Taking Donggang district in Rizhao city in Shandong province as the research area, by using multi-temporal land use data from 2014 to 2022, the evolution characteristics of land use pattern in this area have been analyzed. By using PLUS model, land use pattern in 2030 has been stimulated, and its future development trend has been studied. As showed by the research results, construction land in Donggang district has continued to expand from 2014 to 2022. The impervious surface area has increased from 275.43km2 to 318.44km2. It is expected to grow to 356.42km2 by 2030. It is mainly from the transformation of arable land. Ecological land tends to be stable as a whole. The forest area has increased from 62.88km2 to 71.69km2, and it is expected to reach 80.24km2 by 2030. The water body area has increased from 32.95km2 to 34.46km2, and it is expected to increase to 36.47km2 by 2030. Land use changes are driven by a variety of factors, among which population density and nighttime light index are main influencing factors of urban construction land expansion, while topography, precipitation and vegetation cover are still key driving factors for the distribution of ecological land. This study will provide a scientific basis for land use planning of Donggang district, and provide some references for sustainable development in other regions.