煤炭资源型城市生态系统服务与居民福祉多情景预测——以新泰市为例

Multi-scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service and Residents Well-being in Coal Resource City——Taking Xintai City as an Example

摘要:

预测当前的人类活动会对未来产生何种影响是制定以“防止生态系统服务退化、维护居民福祉”为目标的可持续发展政策最为关心的问题，也是每个煤炭资源型城市迫切需要解决的现实问题。本文以典型煤炭资源城市——新泰市为例，基于灰色马尔科夫模型对2035年土地复垦利用情况进行模拟预测。根据预测结果构建自然恢复情景、生态保护情景和经济增长情景，并测算出未来不同发展情景下生态系统服务价值分别为911713.66万元、935391.88万元、862868.41万元，居民福祉指数分别为0.539、0.543、0.528，同时明确二者的关系。结果表明，不同发展情景下生态系统服务价值和居民福祉存在差异，其中生态保护情景是实现二者协调发展的优选模式。研究结果有望从生态系统服务与居民福祉可持续协调发展角度为煤炭资源型城市生态系统管理和土地利用规划决策提供科学参考。

Abstract:

Predicting how current human activities will impact the future is a key concern in formulating sustainable development policies aimed at "preventing the degradation of ecosystem services and maintaining residents' well-being." This issue is especially urgent for coal resource-based cities. In this paper, taking Xintai city, a typical coal resource city as an example, by using a gray Markov model, land reclamation and utilization have been simulated and predicted by 2035. Based on the predictions, three scenarios are constructed: natural restoration, ecological protection, and economic growth. The estimated values of ecosystem services under these different scenarios are 9117136.6 ten thousand yuan, 935391.88 ten thousand yuan, and 862868.41 ten thousand yuan, while the residents well-being indices are 0.539, 0.543, and 0.528 respectively. The relationship between the two has been clarified. It is indicated that there are differences in ecosystem service values and residents well-being under different development scenarios, with the ecological protection scenario being the optimal model for achieving coordinated development of both. The findings are expected to provide scientific references for ecosystem management and land use planning decisions in coal resource-based cities from the perspective of sustainable and coordinated development of ecosystem services and residents well-being.