大都市区耕地非农化的时空跃迁特征分析——以天津市为例

Analysis on Spatio-temporal Transition Characteristics of Cultivated Land Non-agriculturalization in Metropolitan Areas——Taking Tianjin City as an Example

摘要:

基于天津1992—2022年4期数据，运用重心模型、探索性时空数据分析等方法，分析了大都市区耕地非农化时空跃迁特征。结果表明：天津耕地非农化主要以转为建设用地、水域为主；天津耕地非农化地域差异明显，中心城区耕地非农化规模较小，而东南各区规模较大；天津耕地非农化重心先向西北后向东北方向迁移，总体呈“V”型走势；天津耕地非农化有明显的空间集聚特点，但聚集水平不断下降，“高—高”聚集区主要分布于东部及南部区域，“低—低”聚集区主要分布于中心城区；北部、东部和南部地区的耕地非农化空间结构有较强的动态性，北辰区、东丽区等中心城区周边区对临近区有更强空间依赖；天津耕地非农化在空间格局演化上具有较强的空间整合性，正向协同增长的有7个区，主要分布在中北部地区，负向协同增长的有3个区，主要分布在中心城区周边区域；天津耕地非农化的不同空间结构类型间较少发生跃迁，具有较强的转移惰性。

Abstract:

Based on data from four periods between 1992 and 2022 in Tianjin city, by using the gravity center model and exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis methods, spatiotemporal transition characteristics of cultivated land non-agriculturalization in the metropolitan area have been analyzed. It is indicated that the cultivated land non-agriculturalization in Tianjin primarily involves conversion to construction land and water bodies. Significant regional disparities exist, with smaller scales of non-agriculturalization in the central urban area and larger scales in the southeastern districts. The gravity center of farmland non-agriculturalization in Tianjin initially shifted northwest and subsequently northeast, displaying an overall "V" shaped trajectory. The non-agriculturalization process demonstrates clear spatial clustering, although the level of clustering is gradually diminishing. "High-high" clustering areas are predominantly located in the eastern and southern regions, while "low-low" clustering areas are mainly found in the central urban area. The spatial structure of cultivated land non-agriculturalization in the northern, eastern and southern regions exhibits strong dynamism, while Beichen district and Dongli district around the central urban area show a stronger spatial dependence on adjacent districts. The spatial pattern evolution of cultivated land non-agriculturalization in Tianjin reveals a robust spatial integration. 7 districts show positive coordinated growth primarily in the north-central region, and 3 districts exhibit negative coordinated growth mainly located around the central city. There is minimal transition between different spatial structure types of cultivated land non-agriculturalization in Tianjin with strong transition inertia.