基于AHP和信息量模型的烟台市福山区地质灾害风险评价

Geological Disasters Risk Assessment in Fushan District in Yantai City Based on AHP Information Method

摘要:

本文在地质灾害详细调查和资料收集的基础上，选取坡向、高程、坡度、岩土体、距断层距离、距河流距离、距道路距离及降雨量8个影响因子作为研究区危险性评价指标，运用层次分析法构建了评价体系。基于ArcGIS平台，结合加权信息量模型对福山区地质灾害的易发性、危险性、易损性和风险进行了评价分区。结果表明，福山区危险性评价可分为高危险区、中危险区和低危险区，无极高危险区，面积分别为75.89km2、192.7km2和668.11km2，并通过ROC曲线对该评价结果进行验证，AUC值为89.9%，表明该评价具有较好的准确性。在此基础上对风险性进行评价，划分为高、中、低3级风险区，面积分别为12.06km2、222.75km2、701.89km2。该研究可为烟台市地质灾害防治和生态环境保护提供重要的参考依据。

Abstract:

On the basis of detailed geological disaster investigation and data collection, selecting the slope elevation, slope, engineering geological rock group, distance to fault, distance to river and distance to road as the evaluation factors in the study area, by using Analytic Hierarchy Process, an evaluation system has been set up. Based on ArcGIS, combining with weighted information model, the susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment of geological disasters in Fushan district have been evaluated. The hazard assessment of Fushan district from high to low are 75.89km2, 192.7km2 and 668.11km2. The evolution results are verified by ROC curve. The AUC value is 89.9%. It is indicated that the evaluation has good accuracy. On this basis, the risk has beem evaluated and divided into high, medium and low risk areas, with areas of 12.06km2, 222.75km2 and 701.89km2 respectively. This study can provide important references for geological hazard prevention and ecological environment protection in Yantai city.