“一带一路”沿线国家矿业投资风险评价——基于改进的灰色关联分析模型

Risk Assessment of Mining Investments along the Belt and Road Countries——Based on Improved Grey Correlation Analysis Model

摘要:

随着共建“一带一路”倡议的推进，中国对沿线国家矿业投资稳步增长。由于部分国家特殊的政治、经济、文化背景，使得投资活动常面临众多风险，因此，有必要对矿业投资风险进行科学评价，以提高风险抵御能力。以国际投资风险一体化分析框架为基础，提出从社会一般环境与行业一般环境2个维度展开的矿业投资风险评价“四层次”指标体系，然后运用灰色系统理论的重要工具灰色关联分析对指标体系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明，政局稳定程度是影响矿业投资风险的首要因素，其次为外交关系情况、基础设施建设、矿产资源禀赋、对外单项投资和国民教育水平；以国别进行风险评价的研究结果表明，越南、印度尼西亚等为低风险国家，哈萨克斯坦、波兰等为中风险国家，巴基斯坦、伊朗等为高风险国家。

Abstract:

Accompanying with the promotion of joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative, mining investment in countries along the route has increased steadily. Based on the integrated analysis framework of international investment risk, a "four level" indicator system for mining investment risk evaluation is proposed from two dimensions, they are social general environment and industry general environment. Then, an important tool of grey system theory, grey correlation analysis is used to conduct empirical research on the indicator system. It is indicated that the degree of political stability is the primary factor affecting the risk of mining investment, followed by diplomatic relations, infrastructure construction, mineral resource endowment, external single investment, and national education level; The research results of risk assessment by country indicate that Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries are low-risk, Kazakhstan, Poland and other countries are medium risk, and Pakistan, Iran and other countries are high-risk.