基于FLUS模型的大都市区土地利用优化模拟——以深圳市为例

Metropolitan Land Use Optimization Simulation Based on FLUS Model——Setting Shenzhen Cityas an Example

摘要:

采用深圳市2010年、2015年和2016年的土地利用现状数据，运用FLUS模型对自然发展情景、生态安全情景和生态优化情景3种情景下2030年深圳市土地利用结构和空间布局的变化进行模拟。研究结果表明：以2010年为基期模拟2015年土地利用布局的kappa指数为0.862，模拟结果较为理想。3种情景下深圳市2030年土地利用布局既有共性也存在差异。生态优化情景在禁止建设区把部分生产性用地转变为具有重要生态功能的林地，在限制建设区严格控制新增建设用地，在集中连片的控制区内限制生产活动，比自然发展情景和生态安全情景更能达到城市建设和生态保护的双重目标。

Abstract:

Based on land use data of Shenzhen city in 2010, 2015 and 2016, by using FLUS model, the changes of land use structure and spatial distribution in Shenzhen city in 2030 have been simulated under three scenarios, they are natural development scenario, ecological security scenario and ecological optimization scenario. It is showed that the simulation results of land use distribution in 2015 based on 2010 are ideal, and the kappa index is 0.862. The land use layout of Shenzhen in 2030 has both similarities and differences under the three scenarios. Ecological optimization scenarios can function better in achieving the aim of urban construction and ecological protection than the other two scenarios in the following aspects: to transform part of productive land into forest land with important ecological functions in prohibited construction zones, to strictly control new construction land in restricted construction zones, and to restrict production activities in centralized and continuous control zones.