基于用地与人口复合视角下山东省城镇体系规模结构合理性诊断

Rational Diagnosis of the Scale Structure of Urban System in Shandong Province Based on the Combination of Land and Population

摘要:

科学识别区域城镇体系规模结构合理性，准确判定区域城镇规模结构演化态势与存在问题，对于区域新型城镇化发展与乡村振兴具有重要意义。基于用地与人口复合视角，该文综合构建了城镇体系规模结构的合理性判别模型以及城市规模效率判定模型，并对2008—2017年山东省城镇体系的合理性进行综合评价，结果表明：①山东省城镇规模结构较为合理，且其空间呈现出“√”型分布特征，与其区域内人口规模、用地面积具有重要的相关关系；②山东省城镇Zipf指数呈现出稳定发展—迅速降低—较为稳定的阶段性变化特征，一定程度上反映出山东省大城市的辐射带动效应较低，未来需要积极培育区域中心城市，增强大城市辐射带动作用；③山东省城镇体系具有相对稳定固化特征，但随着时间推移，其城镇体系呈现出由低级向高级、由不合理向合理的演化趋势；空间线性回归分析结果表明，山东省城镇位序与城镇规模的关系明显受到区域因素的相互作用。④山东省城市规模效率呈现散团镶嵌分布的空间格局，并且初步形成了三大高度合理的城市规模效率空间格局。

Abstract:

It is of great significance for the sustainable development of regional population, resources and environment as well as social economy to scientifically identify the rationality of the scale structure of regional urban system and accurately determine the evolution trend and existing problems of the scale structure of regional cities and towns. Based on the perspective of land use and population, this paper synthetically constructs the rationality discrimination model of urban system, urban scale and urban scale efficiency, and comprehensively evaluates the rationality of urban system in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2017. The results show that: ①The scale structure of Shandong's cities and towns is more reasonable, and its spatial distribution which has an important correlation with population size and land area is characterized by "√" type distribution. ② The Zipf index of cities and towns in Shandong Province shows the characteristics of stable developmentrapid decreaserelatively stable stage change, which reflects to a certain extent that the radiationdriven effect of large cities in Shandong Province is low, and it needs to realize the balanced layout and development of regional cities and towns in the future. ③Shandong's urban system has a relatively stable and solidified characteristics, but with the passage of time, its urban system shows a trend of evolution from low to high, from unreasonable to reasonable. And the results of spatial linear regression analysis show that the relationship between urban order and urban scale in Shandong Province is obviously affected by the interaction of regional factors. ④The spatial pattern of urban scale efficiency in Shandong Province is mosaic and scattered, and three highly rational spatial patterns of urban scale efficiency have been initially formed.