渤海J油田储量不确定性分析及优选

The Uncertainty Analysis and Optimization of the Reserve in Bohai J Oilfield

摘要:

地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型，并对储量不确定性进行定量表征。储量是油田开发方案编制的基础，一个油田科学合理的开发往往需设计乐观、推荐、悲观三个方案，分别对应着乐观、推荐、悲观三个储量，即储量的P10，P50，P90。渤海J油田正处于开发的前期研究阶段，井点资料少，储层的纵横向变化快，储量不确定性强，而如何优选储量的P10,P50,P90成为决定油田开发方案编制的关键一环。该文通过构造、储层及油藏特征的分析首先确定了影响该油田储量的5个不确定性因素，即：构造幅度、油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程、泥岩次变程，并分析了它们的分布范围，通过地质模型的建立对各个不确定性因素开展敏感性分析，确定油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程是影响储量最大的3个因素，并以此为基础对J油田的储量进行了不确定性分析，优选了储量的P10,P50,P90。

Abstract:

The ultimate aim of geological modeling is to establish geological models that reflect geological cognition, and to quantify the uncertainty of the reservoir and the uncertainty of the reserves resulting from it. The J oil field in Bohai is in the preliminary research stage of development. There are few wells, the vertical and horizontal changes of reservoirs are fast, and the reserves are uncertain. In this paper, the uncertainty parameters and distribution range of the oil field are determined through the analysis of the structure, reservoir and reservoir characteristics, and the sensitivity analysis of various uncertain parameters is carried out through the establishment of the geological model, and their influence on the reserves is determined. On these basis, the uncertainty analysis of the reserves of J oil field is made and the optimization is optimized. The reserves of P10, P50 and P90 laid the foundation for the formulation of oilfield development plan.