基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

Prediction and Analysis for Mining-Induced Slope Stability Based on Probability Integral Method

摘要:

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形，甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型，提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法，并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后，结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析，通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性，得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素，并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。

Abstract:

Underground mining will cause surface subsidence and deformation, and even lead to geological disasters such as mountain and riverbank landslide. The mining-induced slope stability has always been a real concern in mining engineering. In this paper, the stability and dynamic prediction model of moving deformation with probability integral method and the stability prediction model of single slide face based on the limit equilibrium theory are introduced and analyzed at first. Then, the method of probability integral method combined with Knothe time function is proposed to predict and analyze the mining-induced slope stability and the calculation program are programmed by using C# and XML Schema language. Finally, combined with an engineering example, the dynamic change process of mining-induced slope stability is predicted and analyzed, the practicability of the proposed method is verified by observed data; It is concluded that the subsidence of the slope caused by mining is the main factor affecting the stability of the slope, and a grouting reinforcement method is put forward in the stretching stage.