济南市农地流转市场发育程度评价研究

Study on Evaluation of the Development of Farmland Circulation in Jinan City

摘要:

农地流转中市场发育情况的研究可以较好地判断未来农地利用可能发生的风险，以济南市农地流转中的市场发育程度评价指标为例，研究农地流转市场的发育程度，以采取切实可行的措施完善农地流转制度。运用特尔菲法确定市场发育程度评价指标体系，并对指标数据进行无量纲处理，用熵值法计算指标权重，利用线性加权法计算市场发育综合评价值，采用正态分布“3σ”方法确定市场发育程度阈值。在统计年限内，济南市2009年、2010年土地流转市场处于过冷区间，2011年偏冷，2012年、2013年正常，2014年、2015年过热，说明农地流转市场发育较快，但滞后于流转量的变化。所选取的评价指体系能够较好的反映济南市农地流转市场发育情况，市场发育程度阈值计算比较科学合理。在当前农地流转市场的培育阶段，当流转量开始下降的时候，需要采取措施以防止流转量的继续下滑，以避免对农地流转市场的发展产生不利影响，进而影响农业经济的发展。

Abstract:

The study on the situation of farmland circulation market development can better determines the possible risks of farmland use which will happen in the future. Taking the market development of farmland circulation in Jinan city as an example, development degree of farmland circulation market has been studied, and practical measures have been carried out to improve the circulation system of farmland. By using the Delphi Method, the evaluation index system has been set up, index data has been handled by using dimensionless method, the index weight has been calculated by using entropy method, the market development comprehensive evaluation has been calculated by using linear weighted method, and the threshold level of market development has been determined by using normal distribution "3σ" method. It is showed that the farmland circulation market in Jinan city is “under-cooling” in 2009 and 2010, “cold” in 2011, the “normal” in 2012 and 2013, and “overheating”in 2014 and 2015, which is indicated that the development of farmland circulation market changes rapidly, but lagging behind the circulation amount. The selected evaluation index system can better reflect the development of farmland circulation market in Ji'nan city, and the calculation of market development threshold is more scientific and reasonable. In the current stage of cultivating the farmland circulation market, it is necessary to take measures to prevent the development of farmland circulation and influence the development of agricultural economy.