基于逻辑回归的CA模型的重庆市沙坪坝区土地利用变化模拟研究

Simulation Study on Land Use Change Based on Logistic Regression CA Model in Shapingba District of Chongqing City

摘要:

以重庆市沙坪坝区为研究区，利用2010年、2012年的数据得出土地利用变化信息，利用基于逻辑回归的CA模型理论对土地利用变化、城市扩展进行模拟研究，并结合实际的政策对其发展变化过程和生态环境影响进行分析与比较。结果显示该研究区域内在今后一个时期，建设用地将持续增加,耕地资源将因城市建设而继续减少。

Abstract:

Taking Shapingba District of Chongqing city as the study area, by using datas in 2010 and 2012, land use change information has been gained. By using the theory of CA model of logistic regression, simulation study on land use change and urban expansion has been carried out. Combining with actual policies, development process and ecological environment impact have been analyzed and compared. It is showed that within a period of time in the future, the construction using land will continue to increase, while land resources will continue to decline due to urban construction.