东平县建设用地需求预测方法研究

Study on Predicating Demand of Construction Using Land in Dongping County

摘要:

针对传统预测方法不能同时兼顾市场经济和政策对建设用地需求影响的不足，探索性地提出：一元直线回归预测、灰色系统GM（1，1）预测法、综合分析法。通过对3种方法预测结果的比较，从而评价综合分析法的可信度与准确性。研究结果：运用综合分析法预测东平县近期建设用地需求（2010年）为16342.36hm2、远期建设用地需求（2020年）为17620.79hm2，研究方法对土地利用规划中的建设用地需求预测有借鉴意义。

Abstract:

Aiming at the insufficiency of traditional method which can't both consider the demand of construction using land influenced by market economy and polilies, comprehensive analysis method has been put forward. Through comparsion among linear regression method, grey system GM(1,1) method and comprehensive analysis method, it is regarded that comprehensive analysis method is reliable and correct. By using comprehensive analysis method, it is predicted that the demand of construction using land in 2010 in Dongping county is 16342.36hm2, while the demand in 2020 is 17620.79hm2. This research result is valuable for making land use plan in Dongping country, and has great referential significance in predicating the demand of construction using land.