土地利用规划环境影响评价中不确定性分析

Analysis under Uncertainty in Environmental Evaluation in Land Utilization Plan

摘要:

在分析土地利用规划环境影响评价中的不确定来源、特点及其对决策的影响基础上，提出了降低环境影响评价中不确定性的方法。通过研究认为：土地利用规划环境影响评价中的不确定主要由土地利用规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定引起的，这些不确定性具有客观性、传递性、累积性，对决策会产生较大的干扰，但是可以通过使用基于情景分析的预测方法、多方协作的方式以及广泛开展公众参与等方法来降低。

Abstract:

Through analysis on uncentain origin, characteristics and effects to decisions in environmental evaluation in land utilization plan, methods for reducing uncertainty in environmental influce evaluation are put forward in this paper. Through study, it is regarded that uncertainty in environment evaluation in land utilization plan are caused by uncertainty of land utilization plan, environment information and environment effect degree. These elements will disturb decisions. These uncertainties can be reduced by predication methods based on atmosphere analysis, cooperation and joining of public people.